A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
